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美国恐怖故事

Australia's defense‑funded report hypes risks to subsea cables to 'serve military goals'_我的网站

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Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
    Illustration: Liu Rui/GTA new report funded by Australia's Department of Defense played up security risks to submarine cables in the Indo-Pacific waters and pointed finger at China and some other countries over alleged undersea‑cable attacks in recent years, while claiming threats against subsea cables are growing. A Chinese expert said that accusing China without conclusive evidence constitutes "over‑securitization" made by Australian side, as well as a calculated pretext for its own military expansion.
Published by the National Security College at the Australian National University (ANU), the paper claimed recent damage to cables in the Baltic Sea and around China's Taiwan region suggests "state actors are now actively probing and testing cable infrastructure in peacetime as part of broader hybrid warfare strategies" to rapidly degrade connectivity at the outset of a conflict, The Australian reported.
The paper claimed 16 privately owned subsea cables that carry 99 percent of Australia's internet traffic are a "high priority target" for Australia's adversaries that could be severed in a conflict, threatening the nation's economy and social fabric, according to The Australian.
The report singled out China and Russia for blame, saying that there have been multiple apparent attacks on submarine cables in recent years in European waters as well as near China's Taiwan region, suspected to be linked to Russia and China, the Straits Times reported.
However, the report cites a 2025 voyage by Chinese research vessel Tan Suo Yi Hao along Australia's western and southern coastlines as evidence to back its claim that "potential adversaries are actively gathering information about Australia's cable infrastructure."
This report, relying on the routine scientific operations of a Chinese research vessel in 2025 to level allegations of offensive actions against China, and employing ambiguous terminology such as "suspected" and "potential," demonstrates Australia's evidentiary leap, Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Center of East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Monday.
This erroneous claim was refuted by the Chinese Foreign Ministry at the time. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on March 31, 2025 that China carries out normal activities at sea in accordance with international law, including UNCLOS. 
"We hope Australia will have a right understanding of this and stop the groundless suspicion and speculations," Guo added.
This is not the first time certain Australian politicians has leveled baseless accusations of China intending to sabotage its undersea cables. Back in May, Defense Minister Richard Marles claimed during the Shangri-La Dialogue that China ought to boost transparency around its maritime operations. He also asserted that a surge in damage to subsea cables had transformed the seabed into a "battlefield," per The Australian.
Chen said Australian side's scaremongering is tied to its predictive threat‑perception framework forged in recent years. This framework designates China and other countries as strategic competitors in advance, subsequently forces routine scientific activities into a confrontational framework, Chen said.
Apart from unfounded allegations against China, the paper claims Australia's defense military "must incorporate the defense of submarine cable infrastructure into its operational planning," according to The Australian.
It added the government should also consider up¬grading an auxiliary ship operated by the navy, ADV Guidance, to enable it to repair damaged cables.
The vast majority of submarine cable damages are caused by accidental factors such as fishing operations and vessel anchoring, rather than deliberate sabotage. For suspected cases of intentional damage, independent technical investigation bodies should be established, and the principle of "investigate first, characterize later" should be strictly applied, so as to prevent ordinary maritime accidents from escalating into diplomatic conflicts, Chen said.
The core problem of Australian side's submarine cable security lies entirely with itself. Instead of addressing its own infrastructure shortcomings and improving its domestic protection and maintenance systems, the Australian side has chosen to continually exaggerate external threats and stoke bloc confrontation, the expert added.
Chen said that by fabricating alleged Chinese threats, Australian side seeks to "rationalize" its military spending increases and underwater force expansion. The submarine digital infrastructure originally meant to serve global development has been labeled along us versus them lines, and this constitutes the biggest hidden danger, he added.
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(文/观察者网 齐倩)截至当地时间5月20日清晨,伊朗总统座机“硬着陆”已超12小时,总统莱希、外长阿卜杜拉希扬等多名伊朗官员以及机组人员仍下落不明。据伊朗官员称,由于事发地点位于山区,天气情况恶劣,大批救援人员仍在赶往事故现场的途中。
莱希现年63岁,伊朗国内强硬派代表,在2021年大选获胜后担任总统一职至今。

二 | 现年85岁的最高领袖哈梅内伊是莱希的导师,莱希也被普遍认为是下一任最高领袖的有力竞争者。

综合路透社、《纽约时报》等媒体报道,莱希于1960年出生在伊朗什叶派穆斯林圣城马什哈德的一个宗教家庭,5岁时失去了父亲,但追随父亲的脚步成为一名神职人员。莱希还是圣城库姆宗教神学院的一名年轻学生时,参加了1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命中反西方的抗议活动。
在神学院毕业后,莱希投身司法界,被认为在1988年伊朗全国性抗议活动中参与处决大批反政府抗议人士。作为宗教学者和哈梅内伊门生,莱西在司法界地位不断攀升:2004年担任伊朗司法部副负责人,2014年被任命为检察长,2019年被任命为伊朗司法部长,并在不久后参与投票选举伊朗最高领袖。
在2021年大选中打败其他候选人成为伊朗总统后,莱希一直在国际和国内议题上与哈梅内伊保持一致立场,对伊朗核问题、反对西方和以色列问题、中东战略等问题持强硬态度。
路透社认为,莱希与哈梅内伊一样对西方抱有深深的怀疑,支持伊朗经济自给自足运动以及“支持中东代理势力”的战略。英国皇家国际问题研究所中东和北非项目副主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔说:“莱希深受哈梅内伊信任,被认为可以保护哈梅内伊作为伊朗最高领袖留下的政治遗产。”
《纽约时报》也称,莱希在担任总统期间,监督执行了扩大伊朗地区影响力的战略,目前被外界广泛视作哈梅内伊的潜在继任者。
据介绍,如果莱希去世或因其他原因丧失工作能力,根据伊朗宪法,伊朗必须在50天内举行大选选出新的继任总统。在此期间,预计伊朗第一副总统穆罕默德·莫赫伯将暂代总统一职。
半岛电视台分析称,莱希自1980年代初以来一直是现任伊朗政权的一部分。他与政权一起成长,且在体制内享有很高的信誉。

三 | 即使在伊朗保守派强硬派内部,也存在细微差别,个人分歧也很大。由于司法经验,莱希已被证明是一个在伊朗政坛保守强硬派中的稳健派代表。

美国智库昆西研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕西向半岛电视台表示:“莱希并不是一位特别有影响力的总统,而且我认为如果他退出政坛,不会给伊朗带来任何特别的变化。”他补充说,不同于领导与西方进行核谈判的前任哈桑·鲁哈尼,莱希并不是伊朗重大战略政策的推动者。
美媒《华尔街日报》同样认为,如果莱希在此次事故中死亡或者丧失行动能力,预计不会改变伊朗对任何重要地缘政治问题的立场,包括对其核计划和本轮巴以冲突的立场。
国际组织“国际危机组织”的伊朗项目主管阿里·瓦兹表示:“我认为这不会对伊朗处理重大问题的方针产生重大影响。”但他同时指出,这会导致哈梅内伊失去一位长期值得信赖的盟友,“莱希本来是一个不错的选择,因为他是一位顺从的总统,几十年来一直按照最高领袖的意愿行事”。
报道指出,在莱希的领导下,伊朗与西方的关系不断恶化,同时通过“向东看”战略与中俄关系更加密切。当前,中东地区局势持续动荡,伊朗正争夺该地区的主导地位,领导层的变动对伊朗来说又是一个挑战。
据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社(IRNA)报道,事故发生在当地时间19日下午,莱希在伊朗东北部东阿塞拜疆省出席Qiz-Qalasi大坝开工典礼后返回途中,其乘坐的直升机“在瓦尔扎甘地区降落时坠毁”。伊朗《德黑兰时报》说,该地区位于首都德黑兰西北约600公里。
伊朗内政部长艾哈迈德·瓦希迪同日证实,总统座机因天气恶劣迫降。机上还载有伊朗外长阿卜杜拉希扬、东阿塞拜疆省长等几名官员。此外,还有多名机组人员以及安保人员。
路透社19日最新报道引述一名伊朗匿名官员的说法称,“直升机坠毁后,莱希和外长阿卜杜拉希扬的生命受到威胁”。

四 | 该官员说:“我们仍抱有希望,但从坠机现场传来的信息令人非常担忧。”

山区大雾弥漫,搜救人员正在赶往事故现场。视频来源:伊朗媒体IRNA
事故发生后,大批救援队伍赶往现场。伊朗卫生部长在国家电视台上表示:“大雾让搜救工作变得更加困难。我们已经准备好了所有设施和手段,包括外科医生……以便我们能够在发现伤者后立即开始治疗。”
据IRNA最新消息,截至目前,莱希等机上人员仍下落不明,救援队伍仍在赶往事故现场的途中。
当地时间20日早,哈梅内伊主持祈祷仪式,祈祷机上人员平安归来。他早些时候还发布推文,呼吁伊朗国民不要惊慌:“这些人为伊朗民族服务,大家大家应该为他们的健康祈祷。国民不需要担心或焦虑,因为国家的治理不会受到任何干扰。”

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